What if farmers could access more accurate, timely and affordable insurance protection against the risks posed by unpredictable weather and changing climatic conditions?
This is the question behind AgriShield Kenya, a parametric agricultural insurance innovation presented by Gideon Karobia Weru and his teammate, Joyster Gitonga, from Egerton University, at the 2026 National Product Development Competition (NPDC) hosted at Daystar University.
AgriShield Kenya seeks to address one of the persistent challenges in agricultural insurance: basis risk. This occurs when an insurance payout does not accurately reflect the actual losses experienced by a farmer, often because the weather index used to trigger compensation differs from the conditions affecting the farmer’s crops. This can undermine farmers’ confidence in insurance and limit its effectiveness as a risk-management tool.
The proposed solution integrates NASA API weather and environmental data with actuarial modelling to develop a more responsive parametric agricultural insurance product. At its core is a Composite Deficit Index (CDI), which combines rainfall deficit, weighted at 60%, and soil moisture deficit, weighted at 40%. The index is then adjusted using temperature factors, with a higher adjustment applied when temperatures exceed 30°C. Crop growth stages are also incorporated to account for the varying water requirements of crops throughout their development.
By bringing these variables together, AgriShield Kenya aims to produce payouts that better reflect the conditions experienced by farmers. The team reports a correlation of 0.89 for its proposed model, demonstrating its potential to improve the relationship between measured environmental conditions and farmers’ actual losses.
Beyond payout determination, the product applies Monte Carlo simulations and stochastic processes to model 10,000 possible future scenarios, supporting the estimation of premiums that reflect agricultural risk. This actuarial approach is intended to strengthen pricing accuracy while maintaining accessibility for both small-scale and large-scale farmers.
Recognising that not every farmer has access to a smartphone, the team has also developed a working USSD platform, allowing farmers to access the service through basic mobile phones. This integration of data-driven modelling and accessible technology makes the product particularly relevant to diverse farming communities.
AgriShield Kenya has progressed to the prototype stage, with its CDI model and USSD functionality forming key components of the proposed solution. Its approach to combining rainfall, soil moisture, temperature and crop growth-stage information offers an interesting direction for reducing basis risk in parametric agricultural insurance.
The innovation earned Gideon Weru and Joyster Gitonga the Runner-Up position at the 2026 National Product Development Competition at Daystar University, recognising their contribution to the development of practical, actuarially informed solutions for the agricultural sector.
As the team continues developing the product, further validation using real-world agricultural loss data, refinement of the model and engagement with insurers and agricultural stakeholders will be important in assessing its performance and implementation potential.
Connect with the innovators:
Email : werugideon38@gmail.com
AgriShield Kenya reflects the growing role of actuarial science, technology and data in developing innovative insurance solutions that respond to real-world challenges and strengthen the resilience of farming communities.
This product was presented in this year’s (2026) National PDC held at Daystar University